22 July 2007

2007SAM conducted a series of research studies prior to the early parliamentary elections of July 22nd 2007. Three different methodologies were employed and the results were broadcast live on NTV.

• Quantitative public opinion polls prior to the elections. The last of these included 1800 face to face interviews in 182 neighborhoods or villages in 85 districts in 44 provinces throughout Turkey, selected on the basis of multi-stage stratified random sampling. The research study predicted final distribution of votes as follows (± 2.3 % margin of error at 95 % confidence level): AKP (Justice and Development Party): 45.9; CHP (Republican People’s Party): 21.0, MHP (Nationalist Movement Party): 11.7.

• Focus groups. 21 focus group meetings were held in 19 provinces throughout all regions of Turkey and with members of various sectors of society in order to reach an understanding of voters’ opinions, complaints and tendencies. Results were summarized in 21 qualitative reports.

• A study was conducted at polling stations on Election Day upon the completion of voting in order to reach an early forecast of election results. A sample of 600 polling stations was selected among 175,000 polling stations throughout Turkey. The results gathered from 600 neighborhoods or villages in 338 districts in 83 electoral districts were processed and study results were aired on NTV immediately after the broadcast ban was lifted. Official results showed that no parties had scored more than 1 percentage point above or below the SAM forecast.
Political Parties
Findings of SAM (%)
Official results  (%)
AKP
45,56
46,58
CHP
19,99
20,88
MHP
14,37
14,27
DP
6,29
5,42
Independent (Total)
6,10
5,24
GP
2,99
3,04
SP
2,30
2,34
BTP
0,57
0,52
HYP
0,57
0,51
IP
0,39
0,37
ATP
0,36
0,29

28 March 2004

2004SAM conducted research at polling stations on Election Day, upon the completion of voting, in order to arrive at early predictions regarding provincial councils throughout Turkey and the metropolitan municipalities of Istanbul, Ankara and Ýzmir.

The highest difference between SAM’s findings and official results was less than 1 percent.

CNN Turk took data from this research as the basis of their election forecast.
Political Parties
Findings of SAM (%)
Official results  (%)
AKP
42,38
41,67
CHP
18,83
18,23
MHP
9,82
10,45
DYP
9,33
9,97
SHP
5,04
5,15
SP
4,31
4,02
GENC PARTI
2,41
2,60
ANAP
2,68
2,50
DSP
1,98
2,12
BBP
1,22
1,16
BTP
0,36
0,48
DP
0,08
0,02
YTP
0,26
0,25
TKP
0,21
0,26
IP
0,20
0,25
EMEP
0,06
0,06
ATP
0,02
0,01
ODP
0,04
0,04
MP
0,01
0,03
Independent (Total)
0,76
0,73

3 November 2002

2002Parliamentary elections held in Turkey on November 3rd 2002 resulted in the decisive victory of Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkýnma Partisi – AKP) as almost all close observers and analysts had forecasted. The elections also produced the country’s first two-party National Assembly in more than half a century, an outcome which SAM announced through CNN Turk as early as 7:30 pm on Election Day.

Although early results suggested otherwise to some analysts, SAM was confident from the outset that Mrs. Çiller’s True Path Party would not make the 10 percent threshold. It relied on a theoretically sound and well-tested model to arrive at accurate election results within a few hours of actual voting. SAM had an extensive field organization, including some 600 polling station attendants throughout the country, to communicate results to the fully equipped and trained staff of forty persons and expert analysts who were headquartered at CNN Turk for the day. Two elements played a key role in SAM’s success: fine tuned sampling and rigorous organization.

Eighteen parties stood elections and none scored more than 0.4 percentage points above or below the SAM forecast. The following table compares the early SAM figures with the official election results:
Political Parties
Findings of SAM (%)
Official results  (%)
AKP
34,45
34,28
CHP
19,78
19,39
DYP
9,40
9,54
MHP
8,43
8,36
GP
7,20
7,25
DEHAP
6,00
6,22
ANAP
5,02
5,13
SP
2,65
2,49
DSP
1,39
1,22
YTP
1,20
1,15
BBP
1,02
1,02
YP
0,82
0,94
IP
0,49
0,51
BTP
0,41
0,48
ODP
0,34
0,34
LDP
0,29
0,28
MP
0,19
0,22
TKP
0,18
0,19
Independent (Total)
0,75
1,00