Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) Opinion Polling

2008 Method: Qualitative and quantitative

The study aimed to determine:

  • Political preferences and the factors which shape them
  • Standpoints regarding various issues which dominate the social, political and economic agenda
  • Public opinion with regards to the present social, political and economic situation of TRNC

Periodic Public Opinion Polls

2005-2008 Method: Quantitative Public opinion polling conducted twice or three times a year to obtain information about political viewpoints and the current political agenda.

Election Day Forecasting – July 22nd, 2007 Parliamentary Elections

2007 Method: Quantitative Research at polling stations on Election Day upon the completion of voting to achieve early forecasting of the parliamentary elections. Study results were aired on NTV immediately after the broadcast ban was lifted. Official results showed that no parties had scored more than 1 percentage point above or below the SAM forecast. For details click here.

Pre-election Public Opinion Polls – 2007 Parliamentary Elections

2007 Method: Qualitative and quantitative 21 focus group meetings held in 19 provinces throughout all regions of Turkey and with members of various sectors of society in order to reach an understanding of voters’ opinions, complaints and tendencies. Two quantitative studies with a nationwide representative sample to monitor voting preferences.

Study on Turkish Politics

2006 Method: Qualitative Evaluations of political parties’ local representatives regarding country politics

Election Day Forecasting – March 28th, 2004 Local Elections

2004 Method: Quantitative
  • Provincial council results throughout Turkey
  • Research at polling stations on Election Day upon the completion of voting to achieve early forecasting regarding metropolitan municipalities of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.
  • The highest difference between SAM’s findings and official results was less than 1 percent. For details click here.

Public Opinion Polls – District Municipality

2004 Method: Quantitative Two research studies to determine voting tendencies prior to the 2004 local elections

Public Opinion Polls – Municipality

2004 Method: Qualitative and quantitative Research conducted prior to local elections in order to reach an understanding of how respondents evaluate present municipal services and what their subsequent voting behavior might be.

Public Opinion Polls – Sub-district Municipality

2004 Method: Quantitative Study to determine voting tendencies prior to the 2004 local elections.

Public Opinion Polls – Metropolitan Municipality

2003 Method: Quantitative Study to determine voting tendencies prior to the 2004 local elections.

Election Day Forecasting – November 3rd, 2002 Parliamentary Elections

2002 Method: Quantitative Research at polling stations on Election Day upon the completion of voting to achieve early forecasting.
The elections produced the country’s first two-party National Assembly; an outcome which CNN Turk announced based on SAM’s findings at 7:30 pm on Election Day. No parties scored more than 0.4 percentage points above or below the SAM forecast. For details click here.

Pre-election Public Opinion Polls – 2002 Parliamentary Elections

2002 Method: Quantitative During September and October, two quantitative studies were conducted with a nationwide representative sample to monitor voting preferences.

Research for Simulating Results in a Two-Rounded Electoral system in Turkey

2002 Method: Quantitative A nationwide representative survey for a simulation study conducted to predict the potential distribution of seats in the parliament should Turkey switch to a two-rounded electoral system.

Public Sector Reform Research

2002 Method: Quantitative

The initial theoretical conceptualization of the project was achieved through rigorous desk research about the evolution of public sector reform around the world and in Turkey.
Topics covered in public opinion polling:

  • Perceptions, level of satisfaction and confidence with regards to public administration, public institutions and services
  • Perceptions regarding quality of administration and governance
  • Perceptions regarding the prevalence of corruption in society and public administration
  • Viewpoints about political favoritism and the patronage system
  • Volume of demand towards public sector reform
  • Particular areas where demand towards reform is concentrated
  • Respondents’ priorities with respect to reform efforts
  • Preferences regarding different restructuring options in the reform project
  • Viewpoints with regards to the level of public sector interference in the economy, private sector’s presence in public services, decentralization in governance, people’s rights to knowledge and voice opinions about public institutions and civil society supervision of public institutions

TUSIAD published the research report.

Electoral System and Political Parties

2001 Method: Desk research, qualitative and quantitative

Rigorous desk research on electoral systems around the world and Turkey.
Major topics covered:

  • Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the electoral body
  • Participation level and ways of participation in political life
  • Level of familiarity with the current electoral system
  • Public opinion on elections, political parties and basic demands (fairness in representation-stability in governance)
  • Public opinion on potential alternatives in reorganizing the electoral system
  • Approach to, and espousal of alternative electoral systems

TUSIAD published the research results in two volumes.

Research on Political and Social Values

1999 Method: Quantitative Aimed at evaluating the political and social values of the electoral body in urban Turkey

Monitoring Post-Election Political Trends – 1999 Parliamentary Elections

1999-2001 Method: Quantitative
  • Four nationwide public opinion polls, every six months between the years of 1999 and 2000 with representative samples of 3000 respondents.
  • Weekly or biweekly face-to-face interviews with 1200 respondents throughout Turkey between October 2000 and October 2001
  • 21 studies of “Leadership Perception”

Pre-election Public Opinion Polls – 1999 Parliamentary and Local Elections

1999 Method: Qualitative and quantitative
  • 26 opinion polls prior to the 1999 elections, four of which were representative nationwide and the rest representative on local scales
  • Approximately 40,000 face-to-face interviews
  • Approximately 50 focus group meetings

Research on Political and Social Values

1998 Method: Kantitatif
  • Profile of the electoral body; demographic and socio-economic characteristics
  • Worldviews, values and attitudes (nationalism, traditionalism, modernism…etc)
  • Participation in social life and politics
  • Membership in NGOs
  • Approach to the country’s problems and suggestions for resolution

Research on Political and Social Tendencies

1997 Method: Quantitative Research aimed at discerning the changes in voters’ political tendencies and understanding public opinion regarding the political agenda.

Pre-Election Public Opinion Polls – 1995 Parliamentary Elections

1995 Method: Quantitative

IMV-SAM conducted opinion polls prior to the parliamentary elections of 24th December 1995. A nationwide representative sample as well as 14 samples representative by province were polled. A total of 11,472 face-to-face interviews were held in urban and rural areas.

  • Profile of the electoral body; demographic and socio-economic characteristics
  • Political tendencies
  • Preferred political parties and why
  • Changes in distribution of votes as compared to the 1991 elections
  • Voter compositions for political parties
  • Voter compositions for local candidates